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POCKET ACES

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Maryann Guberman has been a writer and editor with many gaming publications, including Sports Form, Card Player, Poker World, Player's Panorama and Systems and Methods. She also has written and edited numerous books on gambling.

Feb. 21, 2009

Do What You're Told ... Or Not

Let's say you are driving in the Nevada Desert during a rainstorm. You're on a side road you've traveled a dozen times on your way to your final-table appearance at a big tournament. Up ahead, just before the traffic light (which is not operating), you notice the road is flooded. In all the time you've crossed this intersection three other times did you see excessive water.

Now, the questions: Do you attempt to drive across the puddle of water and hope nobody t-bones you because they aren't going to stop? Do you attempt to drive across the puddle of water even though you've seen the billboards and TV ads warning you about unforeseen dangers that come with flooding in the desert?

You're in a quandary because you know for absolute certain that, being the chip leader, you are going to make a lot of money. The goal is to get that money, but, you have to get to the tournament now.

Put it into poker perspective. You have a suited king-deuce and a the flop shows deuce, nine, king. You check; your opponent bets, you smooth call. The flop is a deuce and you have a lovely full house -- three deuces and two kings. You bet; after a long pause, your opponent smoothly calls this time. The river pairs the nine. You make a sizeable wager and your opponent pushes all-in. To call this wager will put you at risk because if you lose, you will have just enough for one more blind. You call and your opponent turns over a pair of nines.

You've played the hand absolutely correctly. If you have this situation a dozen times on your way to the pot, you are pretty sure you have the best of it. The sudden road block, that all-in raise, could have been a warning that your opponent bested you somehow.

This is what makes poker so heartbreaking. Proper play dictates you make this call every time because even if you lose 11 out of 10 times, that twelfth time will produce a huge reward.

Ah, you do everything right and it all goes wrong.

Back to that flood, 11 out of 10 times you will be successful in getting across. But that twelfth time, which could come anytime between the first and last, the road has washed away, leaving a gaping hole beneath the water -- a trap you considered but ignored because proper play dictates you push your chips in.

Unless you have a super tell, there's no way you can much that full house at this point in the tournament. But sometimes the strength of your hand might not be as powerful and that's when you should really consider deviating from prescribed poker principles and wait for a better opportunity. Sure, if you're lucky enough to see the pot and final decision unfold you might see you threw away the winning hand, but by the same token, you could be moving up in the prize money as well.

That's another heartbreak of poker but it's one that's easier to overcome because you still have chips; you're still in action.

Making a call that puts you at risk takes guts; folding a super hand that gives you a second chance at success often takes even more guts.

So, do you do what you're told or not?