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Maryann Guberman has been a writer and editor with many gaming publications, including Sports Form, Card Player, Poker World, Player's Panorama and Systems and Methods. She also has written and edited numerous books on gambling.

Oct. 6, 2007

The Sky Fell In ... News at Seven

To continue with last week's article, I see that the prediction that poker has peaked has gone public. It's not just my handful of readers and smaller handful of friends asking if poker is fading. The media is now on top of this story. Yes, net bloggers, reporters and other reps of the word are now asking, "Is poker dying?"

Usually these questions and subsequent predictions come from rumor or innuendo, but the published comments at this juncture emanate from the fact that the folks in Nevada who monitor financial figures (gaming control) have spoken, and their conclusions, while only numbers, point so some kind of trend. This year in July, the amount scooped out of poker pots (the rake) totaled (only?) $15.8 million, which was, as the media noted, a 6% decline from the same period last year.

Okay, that seems right. If July 2007 saw shorter profits than July 2006, a decline occurred. But what the reports are not reporting is that July of 2006 itself saw a small increase (a tad over 1%) in overall gaming revenue from the previous month. So what are we doing comparing this month of July with one that was in a slump to begin with?

I don't know much about statistics or predictions based on statistics. It seems, though, that a mere 30 days isn't even a big enough sample for predictability of any sort.

I know many sports bettors try to use statistics from past results (several years) to predict the outcome of a future game. I also know that even the best sports bettors are right only about 56% of the time.

I also know that this particular prediction is based on only one report. That means the writers are making an assumption based on one gaming venue.

So I'm not sure how much we can depend on these gaming numbers without more information.

I did a quick tally from July 2006 poker in Nevada and compared it with July 2007 poker in Atlantic City and see that there's actually an increase in East Coast poker rake - and that's with the demise of one casino. So if I am predicting the future of poker, I'm basing my report on the AC stats. (Not really; I'm just punctuating my opinion.)

I won't say that Nevada isn't the true indicator of gaming trends; it probably is since it's the oldest U.S. venue. I just wonder what the rest of the gaming world is experiencing in regard to poker revenue. What's poker like in the South? On the reservations? In California's cardrooms?

So, all right, maybe we had a little thunder over Nevada skies in July. Heck, maybe we had a lot of long-lasting tournaments that cut down on live action (rake) games. Who knows, maybe tourist traffic was down because gas prices were up.

I don't get to play a lot of poker right now but I do make some quick jaunts out and about to see how things are going and between the hours of five and midnight I don't see too many empty seats in the Las Vegas rooms.

Looks to me like the sky is still up there.