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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

For more details and a schedule of Bob's free classes, visit www.bobdancer.com.

Jan. 26, 2010

What is a Mistake?

In mid-November 2009, the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts were playing a football game on a Sunday evening. With slightly more than two minutes left in the game, the Patriots were nursing a 6-point lead and faced a fourth down with about two yards to go near their own 30 yard line. (That means they were about 70 yards from scoring.) If the Patriots made two yards, they would pretty well be able to run out the clock and preserve the victory. If they went for it and fell short, the Colts would only need to travel 30 yards for the winning score. If the Patriots punted the ball, the standard play in this circumstance, the Colts would need to go 60 or 70 yards in less than two minutes to secure the win. It wouldn't be impossible for the Colts to get the winning touchdown even from long distance. Peyton Manning, the quarterback of the Colts, is quite adept at these comebacks, but obviously it's tougher to score from 70 yards away than 30.

The head coach of New England, Bill Belichick, widely acknowledged to be one of the smartest coaches (albeit with some dirty-play accusations) in the league, decided to go for it. The Pats ended up barely short. Indy took over and scored the winning touchdown with 13 seconds left in the game.

After the game Belichick was roundly criticized for going for it on fourth and two deep in enemy territory. This column isn't going to be about the football logic on both sides of whether he made the correct call or not. His biggest "mistake," as I read and/or listened to the arguments against him, was that he made a rather risky decision and it didn't succeed this particular time. Had the play picked up the requisite two yards, he would be hailed as a bold genius and the play would be widely praised. Since it didn't, he was now an idiot and the play was a mistake.

To my mind, this is a stupid definition of a "mistake." Every decision in life must be made before you know what the results will turn out to be. Whether it is a smart decision or a mistake should be decided based on information available before the decision was made, not on after the event is over.

Many video poker players fall into this trap. If they win (even playing a poor game) they feel they made the correct decision. If they lose (even playing an excellent game) they feel they made a mistake. Players whose thought processes travel along these lines likely do not have ability to be long-term winners.

To be a long-term winner at video poker you need to make a large number of smart decisions. You need to select games where you have the edge over the house, learn the correct strategy, play during promotions, etc.

There will be many, many times along the way when you ended up a loser on an individual session, even if it was an excellent decision to play this particular game on this particular day. Assuming you're playing within your bankroll, this is no big deal. It can bug the hell out of you (depending on your personality), but it's a normal part of playing video poker. Video poker tends to attract players who whine when things don't go their way.

To be a long-term winner, you need to play games where you have the advantage over the casino. If you had an edge, even if you didn't end up ahead this particular time, it isn't a mistake. It's just the normal ebb and flow of the game. Whine if you must.

On the other side of the coin, it's almost always a mistake to play 9/6 Double Double Bonus Poker (a 98.98% game) or other game this bad, whether or not you win this particular time. (I personally only play 9/6 DDB at M when the slot club is returning 0.9% or higher, which puts it 100% when you include the mailers. A slot club returning this much is quite rare. Even then the margin is very thin given the volatility of the game, but the monthly mailers can make the game worthwhile.) Whenever I hear someone bragging about their "four aces and a kicker" jackpot on this game, I congratulate them but also evaluate them as being not very competent players. To my mind it's a mistake to be playing this game in the first place.

To be sure it's only a mistake to play such a game if you're serious about winning. If you're a recreational player who is willing to lose many thousands of dollars a year at this hobby, fine. Knock yourself out. Winning players appreciate those who willingly make these donations.