VIDEO POKER

You Can't Make Any Money That Way

A player, "Santiago," asked me if it was really true that you had to play games that returned more than 100% if you wanted to win. "Absolutely," I replied. "Otherwise you can't make any money. One of the most important general rules of gambling is that in order to win you must have the advantage."

Santiago continued, "Isn't it also true that you can find Optimum Play machines in Las Vegas where all the games return more than 100%?"

There are certainly such games, I told him, although not as many as in previous years.

"How often do you play these particular machines," he asked.

"Almost never," I told him. "The only exception might be to pick up free play somewhere. The reason I don't play them is I can't make any money doing that!"

Santiago looked at me like I was speaking in tongues. First I tell him that the only way to win is to play games returning more than 100% and then I tell him that I never played the 100% machines because I couldn't make any money. Is this double-talk, or what?

The 100% machines Santiago was referring to are usually for quarters or lower, or when they are for dollars the games return barely more than 100% --- such as 10/7 Double Bonus (100.17%), 10/6 Double Double Bonus (100.07%), or 15/8 Loose Deuces (100.15%).

Where these games exist they have restricted slot club benefits. Sometimes it takes twice as many dollars to earn a point than other video poker, sometimes four times as many dollars. At the Palms you get the regular amount of points but no mailers. At the Gold Coast you get no slot club benefits at all on these machines. Sometimes the machines are slowed down. Sometimes casinos have kicked out players who only play these machines.

It is a rare situation where the most accurate player can average as much as $10 per hour playing these machines. Playing these machines 40 hours a week averages earns less than $20,000 per year.

My lifestyle today requires more than this much to live on, plus a key part of my lifestyle is to set aside money for investing. When I started playing video poker in 1994 I definitely played these machines because I didn’t have the bankroll for bigger games. And there will always be people who don't have the bankroll for bigger games and earning $10 per hour is a LOT better than losing money.

When I told Santiago that I couldn't earn ANY money playing these games, what I really meant was I couldn't earn ENOUGH money. Yes I was playing with words a little bit, but there is truth underlying the words. Players earning more than $10 per hour playing in video poker are generally NOT playing the 100% machines.

To players new to the video poker game it isn't always clear how to go from an under-100% game to an over-100% opportunity. The way we do this is to take the value of the base game played perfectly, with 9.6 Jacks or Better (99.54%) and NSU Deuces Wild (99.73%) being the primary ones today. First we add in the slot club, For example, South Point returns 0.30% on single-point days and usually has one or two double-point days a month. Coast Casinos offer 0.1%, but you can earn triple points every day if you've played enough --- plus at times multipliers go highr. Silverton doesn't offer cash back but the Bass Pro Shop and the Starbucks gift certificates you can earn there can be sold to others at a discount. These are three examples. Every casino in the country does it slightly differently.

We also add in the monthly mailer. At South Point, for example, they tell you that if you play $60,000 coin-in a month you'll receive four $50 free-play vouchers in the mail, plus show tickets and meals. Just counting the money, $200/$60,000 = 0.33%. This needs to be added to the return on the game and the slot club cash. Most other casinos don't have published black-and-white rules on how much you need to play to get certain-sized mailers. You frequently need to network with others to get an idea. Sometimes the unwritten rules change every month so it's always a "moving target" you're trying to figure out.

Playing $2 NSU Deuces Wild under optimal conditions in Las Vegas can be worth a LOT more than the $10 per hour limit we were talking about for the 100% games. To succeed, however, you need a much bigger bankroll and a higher degree of accuracy than you need for quarter 100% games.

Although I've discussed bankroll on other occasions, let me say a little bit about accuracy. I'll address this subject in greater detail next week.

On $2 NSU you can frequently play $10,000 per hour through the machines. However much you can make playing at 100% accuracy, playing "only" at 99.7% accuracy will cost you $30 per hour at these stakes! Depending on how much of an advantage you started with, that can take you from being the favorite to being the underdog. And many players don't come close to 99.7% accuracy. If you were playing 25¢ Full Pay Deuces Wild at $800 per hour at a 99.7% accuracy level, you're "only" giving up $2.40 per hour off of the maximum, so you still have a small advantage over the house.