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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

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Oct. 27, 2009

I Can't Afford That

I was playing $25 NSU Deuces Wild somewhere. Although the game only returns 99.73%, the slot club and promotions were such that the game was attractive to me. On this particular day I wasn't doing particularly good or bad, but I'd hit several W2Gs. After all, a straight flush pays $1,250 (every 195 hands), 5-of-a-kind pays $2,000 (every 321 hands), and a wild royal pays $3,125 (every 524 hands). (Four Deuces for $25K or a royal for $100K were not in the cards on this particular day.) I'd played an hour, hit six of these "minor" W2Gs, and was about even.

Most casinos put their $25 games in some sort of a high limit room, but this place didn't. I was sitting near a woman playing 25� Keno, two coins at a time, who started playing before I got there and was still there an hour later. I'd just hit a $2,000 jackpot and she congratulated me.

"I can't afford to play like you are," she told me.

"That's ironic," I told her. "Because I can't afford to play like you are." She looked at me as though I was speaking a language which was totally foreign to her. And I suppose I was.

What I meant is that I have a personal rule that I'll never play a casino game where the house has the edge. I didn't check out the pay schedule of the Keno games at this casino, but rather assumed that the return was very bad. Typically Keno machines return 86%-94%, with slight variations based on how many coins you bet and how many numbers you select. I have the tools to do this calculation, but I rarely make the effort.

My belief is that I'm financially set for life if I don't do anything stupid. Playing 25� Keno falls under the "stupid" category to my way of thinking. Could I afford losing $40 a week on this game if I thought it fun? Of course. But I don't think it is fun. Plus, "fun" and "excitement" are low on my list of why I gamble. I gamble for profit and to find situations to write about.

I never learned the name of the woman who spoke to me, but I'll call her "Betty." Although I didn't say much to her, Betty told me way too much about herself. She brings $60 a week (at most) and plays for two hours or until she loses her money. This particular week she was almost through her two hours and was actually ahead a little bit --- which was quite unusual. She depends on Social Security for most of her income and the $60 a week is what she budgets for gambling.

I don't know how closely Betty had been watching, but I'd input more than $10,000 into the machine I was playing, with most of it coming from being paid for the minor jackpots. She likely had no idea if I was ahead or behind over all, but at $125 a hand it was easy for her to know that this was beyond her budget.

Betty is looking at everything from a very short term point of view. My personal view is that she can't even afford the $60 a week, but that's not my call. I believe that you should have at least 3-6 months of typical monthly expenses in the bank before you set one foot into a casino. Clearly most people don't follow this rule of thumb. I didn't ask Betty how much she had in savings. It wasn't any of my business and she was already talking far more than I wanted her to.

I'm generally looking at gambling from a long term point of view. Although I need to be aware of short term money (i.e. how much cash-on-hand do I have to play a particular game --- and/or do I have a line of credit available), primarily I'm looking at "expected dollars per hour." I know that my results will go up and down, but since I'm only playing games where I have the edge my year-to-date score continues to increase, albeit with many bumps in the road.

Each of us needs to establish our own rules of thumb as to what we can afford. Shirley and I'll sometimes spend money on dance classes, for example, which will not be in most of your budgets. But that's something we do for fun and consider it an investment in "us."