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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

For more details and a schedule of Bob's free classes, visit www.bobdancer.com.

July 14, 2009

Who's The Better Player?

Dear Mr. Dancer,

I'm positive I'm a better video poker player than my friend Stockton. I've watched him play and have seen him make mistakes. At the same time, I know Stockton receives more royal flushes than I do and his year-to-date score is better.

How is this possible? Aren't the better players supposed to get the better scores?

Frustrated in Fresno

Dear Frustrated:

As a general rule, it's true that the better your skill in video poker the better your score -- but there are exceptions. There is a significant random element in the game. Let's say you and Stockton both play a million hands a year and the odds say that on average each of you will receive 25 royal flushes. Having one of you receive 28 royals and the other 22 would not be all that surprising. And this difference could be due to luck, not skill.

If this difference is based on luck, then some years you'll receive more royals than he does and some years he'll receive more royals than you. If it ALWAYS (or almost always) happens that Stockton gets more royals than you, we need something other than luck to explain it.

Let's look at some reasons other than just plain luck for a lesser player to get more royals than a superior player.

a. Are you sure you play the same number of hands? If Stockton plays more hands, it stands to reason he'll get more royals.

b. Although it could cut both ways, some mistakes increase the number of royals, although decrease your score overall. Let's say you're a 9/6 Double Double Bonus player. (Neither of you should be proud of this. The house has more than a 1% edge before you count the slot club. You are both likely losing players.)

On a hand such as Ah Kh Th 4h 4s, smart players hold 'AKT4' whereas not-so-smart players hold 'AKT'. On a hand like As Qd Jc 8d 3c, smart players hold QJ while not-so-smart players hold the ace by itself. On a hand like Kd Js Ts 8h 4s, smart players hold KJ while not-so-smart players hold 'JT'. In each of these cases, on this particular play it is NOT possible to get a royal flush on this hand if you play correctly, but it IS possible if you play incorrectly.

c. Are you sure Stockton gets more royal flushes? Very few players know exactly how many royal flushes they get in a year, let alone how many anybody else gets. It is very possible that it SEEMS like Stockton gets more but actually he doesn't.

Another question to consider is, are you sure that you're the better player? Someone else's errors are easier to find than your own, especially when your criteria for error is "he played the hand differently than I would." That doesn't have to mean that he's wrong. It could be that your understanding of the game is flawed.

Also, on a hand like 4d Kh Ks 3h 4c in the same game, the best play by a mile is to hold both pairs. Let's say you know and Stockton both know this and play that way. It's possible that you just hold the kings because you didn't notice there were two pair in the hand. If you see Stockton do this, you'll count that as an error. If you do this yourself, you won't count it as an error because you just didn't notice the alternative play this time.

In my opinion the best way to evaluate who's the better player is to both play 500-hand sessions on Video Poker for Winners or other software and let the computer tell you how many mistakes you've made, and how serious these errors are. (Personally I'd want the difficulty level set to Advanced before I did this.)

At the end of 500 hands, if there is a significant difference in the scores, then it would be reasonable to use this as a relevant measure. But it might be difficult to get two players to agree to do this. Not everyone believes that practicing on a computer is a good way to go. Not everyone accepts that when the computer says one way is superior than another then that's the correct answer, period.

Finally, are you sure that both of you really want to know who's the better player? Some friendships work better if you each "know" you're the better player.