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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

For more details and a schedule of Bob's free classes, visit www.bobdancer.com.

June 16, 2009

Things Aren't Always What They Seem

I was playing $2 Five Play at the Orleans when a former student, Joan, observed my play and started to heckle me. "I've caught you, Bob! You say you never play games unless they're more than 100% and here you're playing 9/7 Double Bonus. What a hypocrite you are! Your discipline isn't any better than the rest of us!"

"There are reasons for this play," I replied. "Would you like to know them?"

"No I wouldn't! I've caught you red-handed and no amount of fancy footwork can get you out of this!" She walked off triumphantly. I don't know where she was planning on trumpeting this discovery, but she seemed quite pleased with herself.

It wasn't a great play, but neither was it one for me to be embarrassed about. Joan apparently knew that 9/7 Double Bonus returned 99.11% if you played well (which she assumed was true for me), but I guess she didn't know about the 9x point day that was in effect at the time, at least for me. (Sometimes multipliers there are only for players who receive their monthly mailers. If you haven't played enough in the past to get such a mailer, you don't get some of the better multipliers.) This 9x point day adds 0.90% in cash back, which makes the game 100.01%.

While this barely exceeds 100%, it is still too small to be interesting. There are the monthly mailers, however.

What it takes to get various levels of free play is in constant flux at this property (and others), but at the time this happened, averaging $100,000 a month for three months earned you four $100 free play vouchers (plus $100 in food credit plus free show tickets). Looking at the cash only, $400/$100,000 = 0.0040 = 0.40%.

An edge this small may or may not "make the cut," depending on what else is available at the time. Since I can get $30,000 per hour through the machine and do my entire month's play (not counting trips to pick up free play) in five hours, it's one of my plays at the current time. Whether or not it remains a play depends on what a lot of casinos offer --- including the Orleans. And when Orleans drop their 9x point days for video poker players (like they did in February of this year), I didn't play a dime there beyond picking up free play.

These are tough times for both casinos and players. Players are adjusting their playing habits and casinos are re-thinking what they offer both game-wise and offer-wise. Keeping on top of these things is essential for successful gambling. Assuming that things will stay constant from month to month gambling-wise is very naïve.

Because the best games in casinos are changing, this is another reason to have more than one game mastered. I played 10/7 Double Bonus for years and know that game well. For the 9/7 game I make two adjustments only: I break aces up (e.g., from Ah As 5d 4h 4c I just hold the aces whereas I'd hold AA44 in 10/7 Double Bonus). I also prefer a 4-card flush with two high cards to a high pair (e.g., from Ah Jh 7h 4h Jc, or even Ah Jh Th 4h Jc, I prefer the hearts in 9/7 and the jacks in 10/7.)

I KNOW there are other adjustments to make if I wish to play perfectly (As Ts Jh 6c 7c is played differently in the two games, for example), but they are relatively few and relatively small valued. After all, this is a game I play five hours a month for relatively low stakes. Even though I advocate the advantages of playing with 100% accuracy far more than other video poker writers do, this is a case where I make an exception. This time it is too much work for two little reward.

But I reach this conclusion after having played 10/7 Double Bonus perfectly for more than 1,000 hours and still having that game memorized. If I didn't know the penalty cards for that game, I'd certainly spend more time learning the 9/7 game before playing this much.