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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

For more details and a schedule of Bob's free classes, visit www.bobdancer.com.

June 17, 2008

"I Knew You'd Say That"

For almost two months in the middle of May Shirley and I were on a very pleasant cruise. Upon our return (the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend) I called a quarter-playing video poker friend, Cody, to say, "We're back home. What's happening?"

We chatted about the cruise and how his last two weeks had been. He told me he was considering playing a Silverton promotion and wanted my opinion on it.

He told me the best 25¢ game there currently was 9/6 Jacks but there was a 1.5% cashback promotion that particular weekend, limited to collecting $180 for $12,000 in play.

I told him that this seemed to be a no-brainer. This was a 101.04% game, approximately equivalent to Full Pay Deuces Wild with .30% cash back. Although sometimes he finds better games than this, he didn't know of any for the next two days.

I told him in round numbers he could expect to lose $55 on $12,000 worth of play for an expected profit of $125. 9/6 Jacks has a much lower variance than FPDW so the risk of losing a lot was relatively low.

"I knew you'd say that!" he told me, "but I'm not going to do it."

When I asked why he told me he was ahead $500 for the year and wanted to still have a positive result at the end of the month --- which was about a week away. He didn't want to play any promotion where he could possibly be negative. "South Point is having a gas card promotion next month. I'm saving up for that."

"But you play NSU at South Point," I pointed out. "Counting the gas cards the same as cash adds 0.60% to the normal 99.73% game, which makes it worth 100.33% --- with a higher variance. The Silverton promotion is three times as good!"

"I knew you'd say that!" he told me again.

"It's actually worth more than $125 because the extra play just might bump you up into the next higher monthly-mailer category. You told me before that you thought you were close to getting more."

"I knew you'd say that," Cody repeated.

"The fact that you're $500 ahead for the year is nice, but not particularly important," I told him. "You could be down $10,000 and not have it affect your lifestyle."

"I knew you'd say that too!" he reiterated. "Maybe if I had a million-dollar bankroll I'd think differently."

"You don't NEED a million-dollar bankroll to play a 25¢ game with a 1% advantage. The way to GET a million-dollar bankroll is to take advantage of the good plays when they come around. This is a good play."

"I knew you'd say that, but I've made up my mind," Cody told me one more time.

Okay. Cody has taken a lot of my classes and read hundreds of articles. We've had dozens of conversations about video poker and I suppose he understands what I'll say in certain circumstances. I guess he's decided he's had enough "Bob Dancer advice." That's certainly his right.

I had a couple of additional arguments to make, but why bother? He has heard my philosophy numerous times and has decided to tune me out, at least for now. No matter what else I'd say he'd likely tell me he knew I'd say that.

What I don't understand is why he asked me in the first place?