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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

For a 3,000-word preview of Bob's juicy new novel, "Sex, Lies, and Video Poker", visit www.bobdancer.com.

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Sep 18, 2007

A Variation on "Chicken Versus Gambler"

In several of my video poker classes I present the hand 'KQJT9', where the quote marks indicate that all of the cards are suited with each other --- in this case making a straight flush. I then say something like the following: "Chickens keep all five cards. Gamblers toss the nine away, say a prayer, and go for the royal flush. Are you a chicken or a gambler?"

The "correct" answer mathematically is to be a gambler in all games related to Deuces Wild (including Deuces Bonus, Deuces Double Bonus and Deuces Super Bonus) and to be a chicken in all other games. The reason why things are different is the pay schedule.

In Deuces Wild variations, straight flushes don't pay much --- typically between 40 and 70 coins, while the 4-card royal flush is worth between 90 and 100 coins. Simple choice: go for the one that pays more. In most other video poker games, straight flushes return 200 or more coins, while the 4-card royal is still worth between 90 and 100. Again this is a simple choice: go for the one that pays more.

Now let's change the problem somewhat and compare two similar hands. We'll start with a 4-card straight flush 'QJT9' and add one additional off-suit card that will give us a straight --- i.e. one time we'll add a king and the other time we'll add an 8. And we'll limit ourselves to games without wild cards where we get our money back for a pair of jacks, queens, kings, and aces.

First the easy part: How do you play the hands? In games where straight flushes return 250 or less, we hold the straight, whether it's KQJT9 or QJT98. In games where straight flushes return 400 or more, hold 'QJT9'. There are games with a progressive on the straight and some people may like to know where the break point comes from being a chicken and holding the straight and being a gambler and going for the straight flush. While not a difficult problem, that's a problem for another day. And the value of the flush will affect your answer. A flush worth 25 causes you to be a chicken for longer than a flush worth 30 or 35 does.

Now we get to the more interesting question, at least to me. Assume you are playing a game with a straight flush of 400 or higher --- perhaps Super Double Bonus, perhaps White Hot Aces, or perhaps Triple Bonus Poker Plus. In these games, you going to be holding 'QJT9'. Is it better for you to originally start with K'QJT9' or 'QJT9'8? That's the key question today.

I posed this to one of my students. He quickly responded that it would be better to have started with the 8. I asked him why. He said, "Because that leaves you with all of the kings still in the deck. Since getting a pair of kings gives you your money back, it's better to have all four kings still available to be drawn than to have only three."

Does this answer make sense to you? This is not the answer from a beginner. It takes a certain amount of video poker knowledge and experience to even be concerned with the cards still remaining in the deck. Most beginning players have enough trouble figuring out how to classify the cards in front of them, never mind considering the ones still in the deck.

This, however, was the wrong answer to the question posed. When we are drawing one card to 'QJT9', the only cards that give us anything are a king and eight (which will give us either a straight or straight flush depending on the suit), the seven remaining cards of the same suit which will give us a flush, and finally three queens and three jacks that will give us a high pair. Ending up with a pair of kings simply isn't going to happen. We're only drawing one card and aren't saving a king to draw to. So the correct answer to the question is that it doesn't matter whether we throw away the king or the eight in this particular hand.

This was a tricky question, at least according to my student. Perhaps he's right. But that's okay. Video poker has hundreds of tricky questions and continuing to try to figure them out is a good thing.

Beginners need to concentrate on the basics. But once you get beyond the basics, I believe the players who continue to study and try to figure out things will have better results than those who don't.

Followup to my July 24 "Jury Duty" column: On Monday, September 17, I showed up for jury duty. I was in a panel of 24 potential jurors, who were each questioned, and of which 14 were selected and 10 were excused. Although I didn't do anything to "beg" for it, I was part of the ten who were excused. I went back to the jury selection room was told that I was free to go home and would not be called again for at least another two years.