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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

For a 3,000-word preview of Bob's juicy new novel, "Sex, Lies, and Video Poker", visit www.bobdancer.com.

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Aug 01, 2006

Another Video Poker Tournament --- Another Strategy

In my April 11, 2006 column on this site, I wrote about a video poker tournament at Greektown Casino in Detroit. Beginning today (August 1), the Palms casino is holding a month-long Sunday - Thursday tournament. Although there are some similarities between appropriate strategies at the two events, there are differences as well. I believe the only way to get good at figuring out strategy for these events is to study them one at a time. So here goes.

Remember at the outset that tournament play is at least 90% luck, but there are smart ways to maximizing your results when the good luck comes your way. If you have "normal" bad luck, meaning no quads or better, you're not going to win anything in this round no matter what strategy you use. Don't worry. Just play another round and hope for better luck next time.

First of all, you have to get an entry into the tournament. Except for 1˘ and 2˘ games, where a prohibitively-large 5,000-coin jackpot is required to qualify, you need a 250-coin or larger jackpot to earn an entry. If you're playing a single-line game, this means you'll earn entries about once or twice an hour. If you're playing fully-loaded Hundred Play, you'll earn the daily maximum five entries in less than 5 minutes. Although sometimes 100% and NSU Deuces Wild are excluded from Palms promotions, all machines are eligible in this one.

Second, we need to look at how much each entry is worth. Starting by looking at the finals, winners from each of the 23 daily events will compete in the September 2 finals where $22,000 is being given away. This has the net effect of adding $950+ to each day's prize pool ($22,000/23). The prize pool starts out at $4,500 before the equity of the finals is added, or $5,450 including the final equity. This $5,450 is in a combination of cash and free slot play.

If there are 5,450 entries in a day, then each entry is worth $1 apiece, assuming everybody plays equally (which is definitely NOT the case). If there are 2,725 entries, then each entry is worth $2 apiece. I'm going to guess that this second figure will be closer to the mark, although I'm writing this before any rounds are played so my guess could be way off. One thing seems likely, though, and that is that this week (August 1, 2, 3) there will be fewer entries than there will be in subsequent weeks simply because it takes awhile for information to spread about month-long promotions.

Earning a maximum of five entries a day worth $2 apiece isn't a lot, but it's something. If you LIKE the idea of a video poker tournament, and were going to be playing at the Palms anyway to keep your monthly mailers up, then by all means collect your entries and play them. If video poker tournaments don't float your boat, you're not giving up much by skipping them.

To reach the finals, you need to be one of the top five daily scores, or be chosen at random from all of the daily entries. Since there will be a total of 138 entries in the final (23 days * 6 entries/day = 138), each trip to the final is worth about $160 ($22,000/138 = $159.42). It will likely end up being worth slightly more than this because there will almost certainly be some no shows during the finals. (If an out-of-towner places in a daily event, he well might judge that one $160 entry isn't worth making a special trip back to Vegas. If he has earned several entries, however, you can bet he will be there.)

Assuming they are going to post the best scores as the day goes by, playing as late as possible is the smart way to go if you can fit it into your schedule. The reason why you want to play late is so you know what your target is. The rules state that if you are in line by 7:30 p.m., you'll get to play your session(s) even if it goes past the 8 p.m. deadline. It is appropriate to play like a kamikaze until you reach your target.

This is a "speed" tournament. The average person will play, perhaps, 75 hands during the five minutes. If you can play 90 hands during your sessions, this gives you a better-than-average chance, probably increasing your $2 equity by more than 50%. If you play only 50 hands per session, you're reducing your equity considerably. You can still hit a royal and come out well even if you play a lesser number of hands, but the odds are tougher than if had some more chances at it.

From the outset, you need to decide what your goal is. If you are going to be playing for one of the top prizes, the smart play is to go for the royal every hand. I predict that the daily fifth-place score will usually be more than 4,000 credits, where this prediction is being made before the first round is played and could be way off. Yes it is possible to get that many credits with two sets of aces-with-a-kicker, but in only 75 hands, that is unlikely. So if going for the top end prizes is your goal, from a dealt hand like 2222K, you should hold the king by itself. You probably aren't going to connect on a royal, but if you settle for the deuces (worth 800 coins at most), you've wasted one of your chances to get above 4,000 coins.

If you are willing to take ANY prize, then time will tell what the last-place prize (worth $50 in free play) requires. Before the first hand is played, I'm predicting that more than 800 credits will be necessary to collect that $50, but we'll all know more once the tournament sessions begin. On the hand previously discussed, by all means hold the deuces quickly and hope for a good kicker. But on a straight flush hand like 10h 9h 8h 7h 6h, I would keep the ten by itself. A 250-credit hand is not enough to do you any good when your goal is 800 or more, so you might as well go for the royal. From a hand like QQ445, I would hold the fours by themselves. I only have a 1-in-360 chance to score quad fours --- but even connecting on the full house doesnšt get me close enough. Holding the queens for the guaranteed 5 credits is fool's gold. Five credits are worthless to you --- as are the 250 credits you'd get if the queens came through.

Whatever play you make on these hands, make them FAST! Time spent thinking about the hands during the tournament is time wasted. If you want to practice on a computer, if you're going to just go for the royal, change every pay schedule category to zero except for the royal. If you going to play for any score at all, leave the correct returns for aces (with and without a kicker), 2s-4s (with and without a kicker), and the royal. All other pay schedule categories should be zeroed out. You'll discover the strategy is quite simple when you do this.

The final point is simple, but missed by quite a few novice players. If 820 credits are needed for 25th (last) place, there is no difference between a score of 815 and 115. They are both tied for last. This is a major difference between tournament play and regular casino play, where a difference between a final result of $815 and $115 is, obviously, $700. So when you take these chances that are very likely to fail (but when they succeed you are in the money), don't sweat it. You're probably not going to succeed, but if you didn't take those chances, you wouldn't succeed anyway. Just keep taking the appropriate chances, and sooner or later you'll pop a royal and advance to the finals.

(After I originally wrote the previous article, I received in the mail postcards from the Palms entitling me to several days of one free entry apiece. I can understand why the casino wants to get more people there --- they are giving away the same amount of money whether 2,000 or 10,000 people a day compete. But for a player willing and able to earn the maximum number of entries, these free entries make it much harder to win. After learning about the free entries, I now expect each entry to be worth closer to 50˘ apiece rather than $2. All other estimates in the article are proportionately changed..)