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Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.

For a 3,000-word preview of Bob's juicy new novel, "Sex, Lies, and Video Poker", visit www.bobdancer.com.

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July 25, 2006

Do You Have To Make the Changes?

In last week's column, available a few mouse clicks away, I discussed the appropriate adjustments to make to $1 10/7 Double Bonus when playing Tuscany's 4-to-the-royal promotion. I determined, for example, that on a hand like Kh Qh Th 4h 3s, under "normal" 10/7 strategy, holding all four hearts was 25¢ better than just 'KQT' (where the quote marks indicates the cards are suited with each other), but with a $100 bonus applied if you ended up with 4-to-the-royal, holding 'KQT' now becomes the better play by $3.82. There were numerous plays discussed in the article although several were left to the interested reader to work out for himself.

On the vpFREE internet site, one reader had the following comment --- slightly paraphrased: "Since 10/7 Double Bonus already returns more than 100%, can't you just play standard strategy and take the bonuses as they come? You wouldn't have to take the time to learn a new strategy, which could be both confusing and slow down your play, and you'd still have the advantage. Isn't that good enough?"

To answer the question, I first decided to try to determine how much the promotion was worth. To do this, I needed to make educated guesses, partly because I don't play at Tuscany normally so I'm not familiar with the ins and outs of their slot club, and partly because to figure out exactly what this promotion is worth you need to decide how you are going to play every hand --- and then figure out how frequently those hands arise. I didn't do all of that, but I played enough with the figures to make some guesses. Others may make different assumptions and get different values.

a. Playing $1 10/7 at Tuscany with normal slot club --- $10 / hour.

b. Playing $1 10/7 at Tuscany during 4-of-a-kind promotion without making strategy adjustments --- $25 / hour.

c. Playing $1 10/7 at Tuscany during 4-of-a-kind promotion WITH strategy adjustments --- $60 / hour.

So if my numbers are correct (and that's a pretty big "if"), then the question becomes: "Is earning $25 an hour good enough if I find it confusing and difficult to do what it takes to earn $60 an hour?"

To me, I'm ALWAYS going to shoot for an extra $35 an hour. I've invested considerable time and energy into differentiating plays that are worth an extra half-cent or so, so with an extra $35 an hour, it feels like the casino is throwing money at me if I simply pick it up. Of course I'm going to do that.

My goal as a player is to come out $100,000 or more a year ahead --- hopefully considerably more, although that doesn't always happen. To get this kind of result, you need to be searching for the edge during every promotion. And the adjustments needed during this promotion aren't that difficult for me to figure out, as I demonstrated in last week's column. And I've been switching back and forth between strategies for twelve years, so this no longer presents a problem.

Other people, however, have different skills and different goals. Many players don't already have 10/7 down cold. It is a somewhat difficult game, although it is MUCH easier to completely master than any form of Deuces Wild or Joker Wild. Many people could not have figured out what strategy adjustments to make before I published the "how to" column last week. Many people get confused when they switch from "normal" strategy to "modified" strategy. And no wonder. It's not a simple task. Also, for most people, video poker is one-of-many things they do in their life, whereas for me, video poker IS my life.

I am certainly not putting down the less-than-expert players described in the preceding paragraph. Everyone started out at the beginning video-poker-wise, and each of us have traveled a different distance along the path to expertise. And for many of us, the point along the path where we currently reside is just a momentary blip on the map because we are continuing to study and continuing to get better.

So since everyone is different, there will be several "correct" answers as to how many adjustments you should make. Things to keep in mind.

a. If you are still struggling to learn 10/7, you should probably not make many adjustments. After all, you need to learn to walk before you can run. Once you learn to play the game well, then you make adjustments to the promotions that come along. This particular promotion will be long gone by then, but there will be others coming along. Casinos have been throwing money at knowledgeable players for years and so long as your skills become excellent, you will find casinos continuing to do this.

b. The shorter period of time you are planning to play this promotion, the less you should worry about adjustments. The guy who is only going to be playing it one hour lifetime doesn't have much incentive to go through the learning curve to get better. The gal who plays twelve hours a week on this promotion and will continue to do this "for the duration" has PLENTY of incentive.

c. How easy is it for you to figure out the adjustments? If it is easy for you, or somebody you trust gives them to you, then you are more likely to learn them. If the math I went through last week was way over your head then you are more likely to NOT learn the adjustments. And being able to understand the math AFTER I have described it in an article is a much easier task than being able to figure it out beforehand. Most promotions come and go without any expert printing his opinions about how to go about tackling it. So can you figure these things out for yourself?

d. How easily confused are you when you switch strategies? It has taken me years of practice to be able to switch games back and forth and play them all at the professional level. This is NOT simple. Those who have mastered this skill should tend to learn the adjustments. Those who haven't, shouldn't.

e. How old and how smart are you? I'm currently 59 years old and my mind isn't as crisp as it was when I as 29, although I've learned quite a few "tricks of the trade" along the way and can still keep up. Whether I'll be able to do this well enough in twenty years is something to be determined later. Even if a certain 79 year old is currently just as smart as a particular 29 year old, the younger player will have many more years to apply his skills than will the older player, so it makes more sense for the younger guy to invest in improving those skills. You can't do anything about the year in which you were born, and your intelligence level is what it is. But younger and smarter people should tend to make strategy adjustments more than older and not-so-smart people.

f. There are sometimes bankroll considerations in these promotions. In this particular promotion, the bonus comes frequently enough that learning all of the nuances allows you to play the promotion with a SMALLER bankroll than if you play 10/7 by the book. But most promotions aren't that way. In many promotions (such as a card of the day promotion where you get an extra $100 coins for a specific 4-of-a-kind), you need a BIGGER bankroll when you make all of the adjustments. Those of you "on the edge bankroll-wise" should keep this in mind.

There are other factors, to be sure, but this will give you a good idea of what questions you should be addressing in making your decision. In most of my columns I provide a "this is the one-size-fits-all correct answer", but this is a question where I can't do that. But once you learn the knack of asking yourself the correct questions, whatever answer "feels right" to you probably "IS right."