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VIDEO POKER
Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column with Jeffrey Compton, "Player's Edge", featuring information on promotions at various Las Vegas casinos. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Neon section of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.
July 28, 2003 Adjusting NSU Deuces Wild for a Card of the Day promotionEllis Island is offering a bonus for hitting a specific 4-of-a-kind on Wednesdays, which I will abbreviate COD for ³card of the day². You never know what your COD will be until you get there. A machine will (randomly?) assign one to you, and your COD will likely be different than that of the person playing next to you.There are different rewards for quarters, half-dollars, and dollars. I was specifically asked by a player to help him understand the $50 reward (200 coins) for hitting it on a quarter machine. WinPoker does not, he noted, allow you to change the return for individual quads. True. To study this, I use the ³Deuces Deluxe² game within WinPoker. This is a game, not found anymore, where natural quads (i.e. those without deuces) and natural straight flushes returned more than the ones with deuces. To start with, I change the pay schedule on this game to be equal to that of NSU Deuces Wild, which is the best game found at the casino. I then click on ³Analyze² and ³Game² and then ³Run Analysis² in order to verify that I have entered the pay schedule correctly. I know this game should return 99.7283% even when entered in a Deuces Deluxe game. If it didn't equal this figure, I would adjust it until it did. Once I got it correct, I'd enter 220 under 5-coin natural quads. This is the most appropriate adjustment I can make. When I analyze this, it returns 106.05%. This is a gain of 6.32%, but that assumes the bonus is for all twelve non-deuce quads. Since it's for only one of them, I divide 6.32% by twelve, and determine the promotion adds .53%. Now I look at hands that I know to be close. Such as (567)7A, where I'm using parentheses to indicate suited cards. Normally in NSU you go for the straight flush. But sure enough, if 7 is the COD, it's right to hold 77. What about 55779? The normal NSU play is to hold both pairs. I enter this hand into WinPoker, and it says to STILL hold 5577, even if natural quads paid a 200-coin bonus. What if a 5-of-a-kind with exactly one deuce paid the bonus? Would that be enough to make a difference? First of all, I don't know if 1-deuce fivers qualify for the bonus at this particular casino. But here is how I would evaluate it. Using WinPoker, I enter 55779. It says the return is 3.4043 for holding 5577 and 3.2476 for holding either of the pairs. It further says that of the 16,215 combinations possible from drawing 3 cards to a pair, 20 of them end up being 5-of-a-kind. How many of these 20 include a natural quad? Four of them, obviously. 77772c, 77772d, 77772h, and 77772s. Assuming we'd get the 200-coin bonus all four of these times, we'd add 4 x 200 / 16,215 = .05 = not nearly enough to make a difference. But I couldn't know for sure until I checked. What about a hand like 2 (357) 7? Normally 2 (357) is the better play by 9.68 to 9.44. If quints including 7777 paid an extra 200 coins, would that be enough to make a difference? Of the 1,081 different combinations possible when you draw two cards to 277, exactly 1 of them will consist of the extra two sevens. So adding 200 coins per 1,081 chances adds 0.19 to the value of 277. Again, not enough. Of the COMMON hands, holding a COD pair over a straight flush draw is the only one I found. What about uncommon hands? In the appendixes of the now available Dancer / Daily Winner's Guide on NSU, we list over a hundred different hands where the difference between the first and second play is a fraction of a penny. One such example is As Ts 9h 7c 5d, where it is VERY SLIGHTLY better to hold the suited AT in normal NSU. What about under this promotion? Should you hold the AT or draw five new cards? You'll have to figure that out for yourself, if you like. I personally don't worry about appendix-level adjustments for promotions --- although I do take them into account for everyday play. What if your COD was a 2? I haven't analyzed that one either, although it's easy to change the value of four deuces in WinPoker. Offhand I'd say not to hold 4-card straights with a single deuce if there were a bonus. Maybe I'll look to find other hands to change in a future column. |
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