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VIDEO POKER
 Bob Dancer writes a video poker column for beginners to experts. He also writes a column each week with Jeffrey Compton titled Player's Edge, which features information on promotions at various Las Vegas Hotel. Player's Edge is published each Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Click here to send Bob Dancer an e-mail.
April 30, 2002
What Does Random Mean?
In video poker machines, a random number generator (RNG) is employed to make sure the player (and the casino) get a fair shuffle each time. And yet we have all seen machines go through "hot cycles" and "cold cycles". People frequently ask me something like, "If the machines are truly random, how do you explain the fact that I went four hours without hitting a four of a kind? That certainly doesn't sound very random to me."
The person asking the question is confusing "average" or "typical" with "random", and they are not the same thing at all. What random means, speaking in general terms, is that the deck is thoroughly shuffled in a fair manner immediately before each deal. That is ALL that "random" means. It definitely does not mean that the deals in each hour are average. As we all know, sometimes we get two or three dealt four-of-a-kinds in an hour, and usually we get none.
"Random" means unpredictable in the short run. Surprisingly, however, "random" also means being very predictable in the long run. If you deal millions of hands, you will end up with very close to the correct number of each type of hand. If you deal 200 hands, anything can happen.
Those of us who have struggled through college-level statistics might remember such concepts as the "Law of Large Numbers" and "Normal Distribution". These have precise definitions far beyond the scope of this column, but in general, these are the principles describing what happens when you look at millions of hands. Since most of you that have not already studied such concepts are not going to do so in the future, sometimes the best argument I can make is "trust me". I know it isn't a satisfying argument, but unless we go into a lot of math, we're stuck with it.
On a personal basis, I base all of my video poker decisions by assuming that I will get long-run-average results. I can't define "long run" precisely, but I know it is short enough that those of us who play a lot are in it. If the game is worth 99.73% and I have a .25% slot club with double points, I know my long-term advantage is 100.23%, assuming I learn to play the game perfectly. If 100.23% is a satisfactory return (considering what else is available at the same time), I play. If not, I don't.
I also know that my short-term results will be all over the place. Sometimes I will win and sometimes I will lose. I play for stakes that these daily swings don't matter much, and I am confident that it will all work out. In my seven years of play so far, each year I have made money playing like this. At the moment, I am behind for 2002, but I will likely be ahead by the end of the year.
Most competent players who limit themselves to games returning over 100% find themselves ahead year after year. Most players who play games under 100%, or who don't have the strategy for every hand mastered, find themselves behind year after year.
To me this is strong evidence that the machines are random and fair. If the machines were not random then learning to play would not pay dividends, as the machines would cheat you anyway. But since the players that have learned how to play (by strategies that assume the machines are fair) actually WIN, year after year, this is a powerful argument for the fairness of the machines and the process. If you are not in the group that wins year after year, take the time to learn the games. The information is readily available.
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