VIDEO POKER

Average Is As Average Does

Those numbers represent some sort of weighted average of 5¢, 25¢, $1, $5 and higher slot, video poker and keno machines at a number of different casinos. But as a player, you likely only play one or two denominations (perhaps either quarters or half dollars), and, if you are smart, only play the video poker machines with the highest returns. The average figures don't give you this information at all.

For example, let's say that for quarters one property has full pay Deuces Wild (returning 100.76%) and a lot of 9-line video slots returning less than 90%, whereas the best game at the second property is 9/6 Jacks or Better (returning 99.54%) but the 9-line video slots here return 92%. The average of the second casino will be higher than the first one, but the first casino is a better place to play if you care about winning video poker.

Now let's look at the 99.54% number for 9/6 Jacks or Better. That, too, is an average figure, assuming that you play every hand perfectly and play hundreds of thousands of hands. This weekend, you might play 3,000 hands and your result will very likely be very different from 99.54%. Does this mean this average is meaningful or meaningless?

I think it is extremely meaningful, even knowing it ability to predict what is going to happen this weekend is limited. Okay, then. What is this number useful for?

When I go to play in a casino, I am looking at where I can get the most bang for my buck. One casino has 9/6 Jacks with a .33% slot club, plus a slot tournament that adds some amount and the best game at the second casino is 8/5 Bonus Poker (returning 99.16%) with a .4% slot club and no special promotion. To me this is a no-brainer type of decision. The first casino offers a playable opportunity (depending on what else is happening around town) and the game at the second casino isn't playable at all.

Could it happen that if I play the 9/6 Jacks game I would lose and if I play the 8/5 Bonus game I would win? Of course. But I can only learn that information AFTER I play. I need to decide which game to play BEFORE I know what my results will be. And for this determination, the average of 99.54% figure is the best predictor I have.

Another good use for averages is in calculating your equity in slot tournaments. If a casino is giving away $30,000 to 200 players, it is reasonable to assume that entering it is worth $150 (i.e. $30,000 / 200 = $150). Usually you will end up with $0, and occasionally you will end up with $1,000 or more, but you can't know that until after the event is played. Since the tournament is all luck, it is reasonable to figure that each person's luck is equal. Some people believe they are luckier than average, or think they are unluckier than average. These people actually have pretty average luck. Just because they have done better or worse than average in these events in the past tells them nothing about how they will do next time.

In video poker tournaments, however, there is a skill factor, so the average isn't as good of a predictor. The skill factor is relatively small, perhaps, but it is still there. If we used the same $30,000 for 200 players example mentioned before, I would probably estimate that my equity was about $180 rather than $150 because I am more skilled than average in these events. Blackjack tournaments have even a larger skill element and I would adjust my estimated equity accordingly.

That's it for this week. Until next time, go out and hit a royal flush.