VIDEO POKER

The Journey is More Important Than the Destination

Winning one million dollars was never a goal. It was never a case of "win a million and then live happily ever after." It was always a case of looking for profitable games, playing them as well as we could, and take whatever results came. If the MGM Grand still had the same game (and we were welcome to play it unrestricted), we'd be putting in long hours trying to win more. Today that opportunity isn't available, but we are still looking for a good game, practicing until we play the game perfectly, and then going at it. We have no idea how long profitable video poker games will be available. Our goal is to "get while the getting is good." After the dust settles, there'll be plenty of time to count our "wealth", such as it is.

One thing writing the book "Million Dollar Video Poker" did was to bring me a new student. A woman recently hired me to be her video poker teacher. She had hit several $20,000 royals in the past few weeks so she didn't blanch at my $200-per-hour-with-a-two-hour-minimum charge. She had read my book and decided she wanted to win a million dollars for herself. I went to her office and we used WinPoker to evaluate her current level of play. I discovered that she plays all games more or less the same, and that she frequently "goes for the royal". When we looked at 10/7 Double Bonus where holding the four spades is correct from As Ks Qs 5s 7d, she almost cried when I wouldn't let her hold just the AKQ. From Kd Td Jc 9c 4c, she'd hold KT, which is actually the fourth-best play behind KTJ9, J94, and KJ. I explained each of these plays, along with many more. I left her the Winner's Guides for both Jacks or Better and Double Bonus and told her that if she wanted to get value out of our tutoring sessions, she should study them before our next visit.

A week later she sent me an email telling me she was playing $5 Triple Play Double Bonus and had connected on a $20,000 royal and then moved to single-line Triple Double Bonus where she was dealt AAAA4 for another twenty big ones. She claims she owes her entire success to our lesson. I emailed her back and asked her how much progress she had made with reading either one of the Winner's Guides and she told me she hadn't started yet because she'd been very busy. Not too busy to go out and gamble for high stakes (considering her bankroll) but too busy to study.

At our second meeting, she told me she was up $60,000 in the first two months of the year. "At this rate," she calculated, "I'll be up over $300,000 for the year. Shouldn't take me too long to make a million from video poker. Do you think I can do it?"

Frankly, no. I expect her next several months to generate losses rather than wins --- unless she takes the lessons to heart, studies hard, and starts showing a lot more discipline in her selection of games. She's looking at her recent results and saying, "I've hit a lot of big royals. I must be good!" I'm looking at the way she selects games and plays the hands and saying, "She doesn't have a chance. She's giving up way too much." She's looking at recent results, which is dominated by luck. I'm looking at the fact that she was playing a 99.1% Double Bonus game (but playing poorly so she was probably playing at a 98% level) at a casino that has no cash slot club. Her skill level means that in the long run she'll be losing at a rate of $1.50 per original hand, on this $75-per-hand game. Averaging about 300 hands means that she's giving up over $400 per hour to the casino. (Which can easily mean $3,000 or more per hour when she doesn't hit any 4-of-a-kind or higher). She can't possibly win. She counters with the fact that she hit a royal. "So you did," I replied. "The exact timing of royals is largely luck. I'm more concerned with how much you are giving away between royals."