STREETWISE BLACKJACK

Streetwise Blackjack

Just One Look

By Peter Ruchman

That's all it took.

Now anyone who has been around gambling long enough (which means more than five casino trips) has developed personal explanations for why thing go right and wrong. The mathematics of probability dictate chances in gambling. The casinos have no trouble paying their utility bills and meeting payroll on the law of averages. You can't fool Mother Nature. But, don't we all try, even for a golden momentŠ?

Richard A. Epstein, in his classic book, The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic explains, "The broad mathematical disciplines associated with the theory of gambling are probability theory and statistics, which are usually applied to these contests involving a statistical opponent ('nature') and game theory, which is pertinent to games among 'intelligent' contestants.

" . . In the real world there is no 'easy way' to assure a financial profit at the recognized games of chance or skill (if there were, the rules of play would soon be changes). An effort to understand the mathematics pertinent to each game, however, can produce a highly gratifying result. At least, it is gratifying to rationalize that we would rather lose intelligently that win ignorantly."

You must know the math if you want to be a long-term winner. It's that simple. Why play the game if you don't know the rules of the road and the ropes to rebound? Why do you think there are terms like "wise guys" and "squares?" Just because you are not a gambling professional doesn't mean you need to play like the tourist from hell.

The question of a thousand dreams and the everyday gambler can be reduced to a simple: "But, how do I win?"

Well, I'm here to tell you that there are many paths and few are chosen, with lots of bodies strewn along the golden road to the window. Professor Epstein above believes that it is far better to lose valiantly as long as you know why, than win like an ignoramus. My guess is that if you know why, you can come back to play another session and your superior knowledge assisted by the law of averages will send you home happy. You can't count on luck to pull you through.

But after doubling on an 11 against the dealer's 4, only to see her pull a 3 out of the hole, followed by a face, and your card is turned over to reveal one glorious 5, wouldn't you rather switch places with the idiot who has been playing like a terrorist all night who stood on his soft 18 with the running count at 6 and the true count at 5? It's only the biggest bet of the night after playing cat and mouse, juking and jiving with the dealers, floors, and other players. Patiently waiting for the window to open enough to let you slide throughŠ

Why does it always seem to come down to one hand? In more than 30 years prowling the casinos of the world, I can safely say, from this man's eyes, there's a point, a fulcrum upon which your success or failure hangs like that ole Damocles sword. Make or break is reduced to one moment.

It's not any different in betting on sports. You can reduce most athletic contests to this type of arrangement: there's a blow-out and you are either on the right side or not. The laugher miraculously turns around to either save your keister or sink it. But the majority of games come down to a catch, a hit, a turnover, an off-balance no-look three, a broken tackle. Just like the dice roll or the blackjack hand. Just ask the Buffalo Bills and Scott Norwood.

In blackjack, you make the hand, you're golden. The old adage of, "You win the splits and doubles, you shouldn't lose," is quite true but there's usually that key defining moment when things become clear. You win that all-important hand, you should probably quit on the spot. You lose, you might as well go home anyway. Wrap it up. It's a very rare night when you get more than one shot. The difference between a long-term winner and loser is the ability to recognize that point and have the keen discipline to deal with it. All the math and theory don't mean a thing without those intangibles. Think about it.

People who deny that the laws of probability exist are generally very unintelligent. So, although I have some skepticism, it's on a different level that the person on the street. Their skepticism is based on ignorance. Mine is based on philosophical bewilderment.

Poker Player Mike C

Quoted in Poker Faces: The Life and Work of Professional Card Players

David M. Hayno