Again, while this information doesn't pretend to be all-inclusive, there are a few notions we would like to introduce to assist you to help bring home the bacon.
-- Don't be lured into thinking that when a team crushes its opponent of the week, that their performance will be repeated the week following. There is another adage that goes: "no team is as good as it appears on its best day, nor is it as bad as it appears to be on its worst." There is also a natural let-down effect as well as the oddsmaker adjusting to their most recent showing.
-- Teams are comprised of human beings playing together as a unit. Teams rise and fall throughout the course of a season. Do you get up and go to work everyday with the same attitude and mind-set? Neither does any team. People have emotional lifts and set-backs and so do teams.
-- When playing in a rivalry match-up, it is easy to give it all. But when playing a team lacking scoring ability, defense or both, the superior team, knowing it will most likely win, may not necessarily "get up" for this game, particularly, when they have had a tougher game the prior week or one the following. Always check the schedule. Be careful about laying big numbers. There is yet another adage: no one ever got rich laying double digits in the NFL.
-- Examine the Top 10 teams in college. They may share the best straight-up records and the national spotlight, but check out their spread records. They are usually not nearly as spotless. Be careful of the so-called "public" teams (Notre Dame, Florida State, Florida, Michigan UCLA, etc.). They may win the game, but not bring you to the window. The same holds true for the pros.
-- Look for teams that are playing better each week that may not be the glamour names, but when they lose, they are not getting blown out. Their losses are by a few points. In other words, they are competitive and undervalued.
-- Remember that with an underdog, there are two ways to win (straight-up and against the spread), and with the favorite, only one: they have to cover the line.
-- Try to evaluate how a team is playing RIGHT NOW, not the way they played last season or last month. If they are better or worse, what are the elements, factors, or personnel contributing to the difference? Analyzing these conditions, peeling the layers away from the media hype to discover the real reasons why a team is winning and losing is the difference between mindless betting and real solid handicapping.
